Welcome to this 117th issue of our newsletter “Weak Signals and other Trends”.
Each week, I sift through hundreds of sources of inspiration to track where we’re heading. If you are a new subscriber to this newsletter, take the time to send me a note and introduce yourself, I love to understand who is reading.
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I have prepared this newsletter this week from Montreal, Canada. This is what I noticed this week, thank you for sharing with those who look into the future.
Estelle.
Competitive Intelligence
Shodan finds intelligence about devices of the internet of things (IoT). Metagoofil extracts metadata from public documents. Searchcode looks for useful intelligence inside source code. Deep Search offers thorough responses to complex search inquiries, using GPT-4 to transform a search query. Computer scientists designing the future can’t agree on what privacy means. Advanced Google search techniques.
Strategic blindspots
Looking at the familiar with “alien eyes” allows you to unlock new business model opportunities while avoiding risks stemming from strategic blindspots. This section also is about the risks we miss.
The race to produce rare earth materials. OpenAI GPT Store launching next week. Saving the Panama Canal Will Take Years. Uber introduced a new feature in the UK that enables users to book flights directly through the Uber app. A new “mouse for your mouth” lets you type and scroll using your tongue.
Our future
We keep you updated on those trends and more on Twitter (which I still find infinitely better than Threads).
What Kind Of Future Does De-Extinction Promise? A paper asking 2778 AI researchers for their predictions on AI progress. Earth 2050. Three trucking firms have stated that they plan on removing safety drivers from their autonomous vehicles by the end of the year. Trend check by industry. The last Sears store in the New York metro area is closing its doors for good. All the CES Trends That Mattered.
Weak signals
Weak signals are indicators of a change, a trend or an emerging risk that might become significant for the future. They allow us to run hypothesis, expand our thinking, and challenge assumptions. How will you interpret those in your industry or field of expertise?
Cosy web. A major French retailer announced it would no longer sell PepsiCo products because of “unacceptably” high prices. New spray-on smart skin uses AI to interpret commands through hand movements and gestures. Hertz is offloading ~20k EV rental cars — a third of its electric fleet — citing low customer demand and high repair costs. Mercedes-Benz taps Will.i.am to create an ‘interactive musical experience’ for its cars.
On our radar
I have been working this week on the materials for a course I am teaching for McGill-HEC’s EMBA on Sunday. Part of the discussion is about the need to work with scenarios rather than forecasts for the future: DHL’s scenarios “World in 2050” are still in my mind the best out there. Four plausible scenarios for cities. Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable Future. The next 200 years, a scenario for America and the World by the CIA.
Down the rabbit hole
This section highlights a subject that led me to many useful threads, or a single site, that opened many doors: “A rabbit hole is not a distraction. A rabbit hole is your brain trying to tell you to pay attention to something you’re curious about. Ignore algorithmic rabbit holes” ( by are.na)
This week, I stumbled upon Earth 2050: it's a site about the future as seen through the eyes of futurologists, scientists, and Internet users from all corners of the globe. Stunning visualization.
And I like this article: How to Fall Down a Rabbit Hole and this quote:
Observing brings the necessary practice of identifying and articulating what is in and around you, and documentation brings what we notice into the fold of understanding.
Hodgepodge discovery
Articles for curious minds and the polymaths
30 useful principles. What Happened to Molecular Manufacturing? The Barcode Engineered Its Own Downfall. The geometry of other people. The Asian world order. Archaeologists have discovered a constellation of ancient Amazonian structures in what is now modern-day Ecuador.
Numbers
~11k: How many washboards the Columbus Washboard Co. still sells annually
383.2B+: Possible latte variations Starbucks can make.
$15B: How much consumers loaded onto Starbucks cards in 2023
Feeling good
Happy Puppies and Silly Geese: Pushing the Limits of A.I. Absurdity.
Image generated by Midjourney: “Cosy Web”
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