Welcome to this 101st issue of our newsletter “Weak Signals and other Trends”.
Each week, I sift through hundreds of sources of inspiration to track where we’re heading. If you are a new subscriber to this newsletter, take the time to send me a note and introduce yourself, I love to understand who is reading. This week, I received this feedback, which made my day:
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I am preparing this newsletter this week from Washington DC, USA. This is what I noticed this week, thank you for sharing with those who look into the future.
Estelle.
Strategic blindspots
Looking at the familiar with “alien eyes” allows you to unlock new business model opportunities while avoiding risks stemming from strategic blindspots. This section also is about the risks we miss.
What if we could turn railways into mini solar farms? The Indignity of Grocery Shopping. Supply chains are as complex as a circuit board. Shopping Events Are Back. Resetting the core. The Binge Purge TV’s streaming model is broken. A hospital's closure today due to a cyberattack is sending a chilling message across the industry. Adobe to Sell Generative AI Subscription With Copyright Assurance.
Our future
eBay’s Blazingly Fast Billion-Scale Vector Similarity Engine. Adventures in Science Fiction Prototyping. Deskilling on the Job. The rise of night mayors as a new form of urban governance after dark . Switzerland installs a solar carpet under its trains. How Tesla is calling the shots in the EV shift. Learning from IDEO and speculative design. Trends have lost their meaning. The new gatekeepers.
The insufficient weirdness hypothesis and this quote:
Does this mean we can’t forecast the future at all? Absolutely not! But it does mean that visions of the future which do not include great weirdness and unknown unknowns — ones which simply grimly extrapolate from today’s ephemeral trends — are guaranteedwrong. I call this the Insufficient Weirdness Hypothesis. […]
We keep you updated on those trends and more on Twitter.
Weak signals
Weak signals are indicators of a change, a trend or an emerging risk that might become significant for the future. They allow us to run hypothesis, expand our thinking, and challenge assumptions. How will you interpret those in your industry or field of expertise?
While the Barbie film forced worldwide pink paint shortage. The longevity city. The majority of viewers use subtitles. Gen Z TikTokers Replaced Doom Scrolling With #Hopecore. Picked by AI, Wrapped by Hand. Identifying painpoints in the customer experience process. Japan vending machines to automatically offer free food if earthquake hits. Paragraphica is a context-to-image camera that uses location data and artificial intelligence to visualize a "photo" of a specific place and moment. South Korea’s semiconductor inventory surged by 83% in April. Trending Apps in Russia and Ukraine Show Shifting Priorities During War.
Down the rabbit hole
This section highlights a subject that led me to many useful threads, or a single site, that opened many doors: “A rabbit hole is not a distraction. A rabbit hole is your brain trying to tell you to pay attention to something you’re curious about. Ignore algorithmic rabbit holes” ( by are.na)
This week, I read every article at the Pudding.
Hodgepodge discovery
Articles for curious minds and the polymaths
See your identity pieced together from stolen data. Black hole evaporation. The new age of perfectionism. Notes on Nigeria. Migration between search and reality. People with synaesthesia blend their senses. A nation’s waters. How Math Has Changed the Shape of Gerrymandering. The Largest Vocabulary In Hip Hop. A great idea can’t be predicted.
On our radar
I have been exploring ChatGPT for a few weeks now, and drafting the implications for industries and the future of work. Lawyer cited 6 fake cases made up by ChatGPT. Rather than eliminating humans from its operations, IKEA says it has trained 8,500 of its call centre operators as interior design advisors. The spreadsheet apocalypse. Accenture announces jaw-dropping $3 billion investment in AI. AI will replace 7.5% of U.S. agency jobs by 2030.
What Does It Mean To Be Human, and this quote:
Right now, people totally misunderstand what AI is. They see it as a tiger. A tiger is dangerous. It might eat me. It’s an adversary. And there’s danger in water, too — you can drown in it — but the danger of a flowing river of water is very different to the danger of a tiger. Water is dangerous, yes, but you can also swim in it, you can make boats, you can dam it and make electricity. Water is dangerous, but it’s also a driver of civilization, and we are better off as humans who know how to live with and work with water. It’s an opportunity. It has no will, it has no spite, and yes, you can drown in it, but that doesn’t mean we should ban water. And when you discover a new source of water, it’s a really good thing.
Numbers
2000- Every year, about 2,000 collisions are reported at railroad crossings.
44.5%- 44.5% of US workers are already using ChatGPT in the workplace, according to Deutsche Bank (33.1% in the UK)
Feeling good
A living house. Guess the city. Creating your walking poem.
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