Murmurations, mirror bacteria, and liminal spaces
December 27, 2024
Welcome to this 145th issue of our newsletter “Weak Signals and other Trends”.
Each week, I personally sift through hundreds of sources of inspiration to track where we’re heading. If you are a new subscriber to this newsletter, take the time to send me a note and introduce yourself, I love to understand who is reading.
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I have prepared this newsletter this week from Montreal, Canada. This is what I noticed these past couple of weeks, thank you for sharing with those who look into the future.
Happy New Year 2025!
Estelle.
Competitive Intelligence
Luigi Mangione Left a Long Trail Online ( agreat case of OSINT). Flipboard lunches a new app , Surf , that connects platforms across the fediverse. Julius: The New AI Tool That Makes Data Analysis Easy. Get Whatsapp Profile Information by phone number. AI Search Engine for Research.
Strategic blindspots and business models
Looking at the familiar with “alien eyes” allows you to unlock new business model opportunities while avoiding risks stemming from strategic blindspots. This section also is about the risks we miss.
A second tree of life could wreak havoc ( see also Mirror Bacteria Research Poses Significant Risks, Dozens of Scientists Warn). Amazon has partnered with Hyundai to launch Amazon Auto. Good to read packs. That chair made the company bankrupt (in French). Trojan cars: Why the US fears Chinese cyberattacks on electric vehicles.
Our future
One of today’s most important technologies is pharmacological. What To Expect From The Next Generation Of Brain-Computer Interfaces. This year, researchers got a better look at the thoughts of chatbots, amateurs learned exactly how complicated simple systems can be, and quantum computers passed an essential milestone. The method could offer away to attach human skin to robots.
It is the time of the year when trend reports start pouring in. Until end of January, I will for each issue add in this section and track those of interest to you, with my personal remarks:
Harvard- What 570 Experts Predict the Future of Work Will Look Like
Axa- AXA Future Risks Report 2024
Marian Salzman - 10 trends for 2025
Forrester - Predictions for 2024
We keep you updated on those trends and more on Twitter and Bluesky.
Weak signals
Weak signals are indicators of a change, a trend or an emerging risk that might become significant for the future. They allow us to run hypothesis, expand our thinking, and challenge assumptions. How will you interpret those in your industry or field of expertise?
The year viewed by Tinder. Zillow listings reveal what homebuyers are obsessed with right now. On the subreddit r/LiminalSpace, thousands share images of empty corridors and deserted parking lots ( via the excellent blog by Marie Dolle). Dutch suburb where residents must grow food on at least half of their property. What Pinterest predicts. English Wikipedia’s most popular articles of 2024.
Book a speaking engagement about weak signals and emerging trends.
Down the rabbit hole
This section highlights a subject that led me to many useful threads, or a single site, that opened many doors: “A rabbit hole is not a distraction. A rabbit hole is your brain trying to tell you to pay attention to something you’re curious about. Ignore algorithmic rabbit holes” ( by are.na):
This week, I explored this list of the Information is Beautiful Awards, showcasing how important visual representation is to pass on the message.
On our radar
In this last week of the year. it is time to reflect on what 2025 will bring as I “rewiring” my board mandates and client focus. I expect to have on my radar the following themes:
The future of healthcare, and the promess of AI in that field
How AI will transform work, and many industries’ business models, starting with professional firms
Governance, and particularly dysfunctional boards, new forms of company ownership, planning in chaotic context and succession planning in family businesses
Preparing for a population/world that is aging and what drives the natality deficit.
Hodgepodge discovery
Articles for curious minds and the polymaths.
The room of absolute silence. How many people spend the majority of their working life sitting down vs those who spend the majority of it standing up. Elliptic Curve ‘Murmurations’ Found With AI Take Flight. The Fun Theory Sequence. What Made Hungary Brilliant? Technical Report on Mirror Bacteria. What Happens in a Mind That Can’t ‘See’ Mental Images. Three Ways to Become a Deeper Thinker. The 7 Coolest Mathematical Discoveries of 2024.
And A roundup of the words of the year for 2024, including brat, manifest, kakistocracy, polarization, brain rot, enshittification, sanewashing, girl mossing, vibe, and broligarchy.
Numbers
900bn - In 2024, total returns are projected to hit $900 billion
46%- AI investment is 46% of total software investment in the US.
200,000$- A new study found that US consumers will spend almost $200,000 on their internet, mobile, streaming, and cable subscriptions over the course of 60 years.
Feeling good
A stonepine story. Spaced out. AP’s photos of the year. A map that allows you to search for all geo-tagged articles on Wikipedia in a specific area.
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