Nacirema, oblique journals, and gray swans
February 8, 2024
Welcome to this 119th issue of our newsletter “Weak Signals and other Trends”.
Each week, I sift through hundreds of sources of inspiration to track where we’re heading. If you are a new subscriber to this newsletter, take the time to send me a note and introduce yourself, I love to understand who is reading.
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I have prepared this newsletter this week from Bridgetown, Barbados. This is what I noticed this week, thank you for sharing with those who look into the future.
Estelle.
Competitive Intelligence
Five routes of access to scientific literature. Free internet metasearch engine which aggregates results from more than 70 search services. Feedle : Another search portal purporting to offer a way into a different corner of the web. The company is seeking to patent a tool to determine “ user presence and absence using WiFi connections. There’s So Much Data Even Spies Are Struggling to Find Secrets. Perplexity and Arc Browser generating summaries for search queries, contain a menu of accompanying media, and list the reputable sources where they pulled the information from. Google will no longer back up the Internet: Cached webpages are dead.
Strategic blindspots
Looking at the familiar with “alien eyes” allows you to unlock new business model opportunities while avoiding risks stemming from strategic blindspots. This section also is about the risks we miss.
The World’s Essential Aquifers Are in Deep Trouble. Prepare for a ‘Gray Swan’ Climate.The world’s largest EV maker is getting into the shipping business. TikTok is testing a new feature where every video on the app would become shoppable. Houthis may sabotage western internet cables in Red Se.
Our future
Hologram lecturers thrill students at trailblazing UK university. Mind-Decoding Technologies Raise Hopes . The Best Neighborhoods for Starting a Life in the Galaxy. A new gender divide is emerging. Oh the irony: The aerospace manufacturer is seeking to patent a system for “inspecting components” for anomalies using an AI model. Population Trends and the Future of US Competitiveness. Is this the bathroom of the future?
What we thought in 1999: the roaring zeros.
We keep you updated on those trends and more on Twitter (which I still find infinitely better than Threads).
Weak signals
Weak signals are indicators of a change, a trend or an emerging risk that might become significant for the future. They allow us to run hypothesis, expand our thinking, and challenge assumptions. How will you interpret those in your industry or field of expertise?
How the model train industry got off track. The world’s uggliest lawn competition. a feeding device that will encourage the family pet to learn to play music. The average price paid for EVs declined by 25% last year due to the industry’s price war. Fed-up air passenger takes a walk on the wing. Climate change impact on roads: 630,000 pothole reports in the UK in 2023, which marked a five-year high. Elon Musk’s $55.8B pay package, granted by Tesla’s board in 2018, was voided by a Delaware court. Hugo Boss took over the London skyline on Tuesday night with a pair of high-profile holograms.
I have to note here the amazing work by The Art of Noticing author, Rob Walker, and his note this week on oblique journals.
On our radar
As a commercial pilot, and flight instructor, I am particularly sensitive to pilot’s tales of failed decision making. I use those often in my class to illustrate how catastrophic failure is often the result of biases, blindspots, and often arrogance: 127 Days: the anatomy of a Boeing quality failure. Boeing, Still Recovering From Max 8 Crashes, Faces a New Crisis. Boeing’s board faces scrutiny yet again: ‘It’s a bad board, and it has been a bad board for a long time’. What Corporate Boards Can Learn from Boeing’s Mistakes. Boeing’s Board Governance Failures.
Down the rabbit hole
This section highlights a subject that led me to many useful threads, or a single site, that opened many doors: “A rabbit hole is not a distraction. A rabbit hole is your brain trying to tell you to pay attention to something you’re curious about. Ignore algorithmic rabbit holes” ( by are.na)
My role as a board member in the watch industry is to figure out that fine balance between constant innovation and tradition in hundred-year old industries. This week, I stumbled upon the musical instruments competition which led me to think about innovation and how you can bring new visions to generations-old craftsmanship techniques.
Hodgepodge discovery
Articles for curious minds and the polymaths
How AI is changing gymnastics. Mathematics cartels. Phish, Peloton, and The Untapped Economics of Irrational Enthusiasm. Alone together. Beads Shows Ice Age Europe Had 9 Distinct Cultures. The Great Freight-Train Heists of the 21st Century.
Numbers
57%- the number of young adults living with their parents has increased: 57% of American adults under age 25 share an address with a parent, up from 53% in 1993.
1T+: Number of cicadas that could emerge in the US this year thanks to Brood XIX and Brood XIII
100bn - The global market for sand was estimated to be worth about $100 billion per year, fueling an underworld of illegal sand trade projected to be worth $200 billion to $350 billion per year.
Feeling good
From To. The Body Ritual among the Nacirema. Shed of the year. Place signs in the world. Tune Into Forests From Around The World.
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