Welcome to this 146th issue of our newsletter “Weak Signals and other Trends”.
Each week, I personally sift through hundreds of sources of inspiration to track where we’re heading. If you are a new subscriber to this newsletter, take the time to send me a note and introduce yourself, I love to understand who is reading.
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I have prepared this newsletter this week from Montreal, Canada. This is what I noticed these past couple of weeks, thank you for sharing with those who look into the future.
Happy New Year 2025!
Estelle.
Competitive Intelligence
Volkswagen strikes again: « Wir wissen, wo dein Auto steht ». Can a Comma Solve a Crime? Crowdstrike 2024 Global Trend report. Finding people with open-sourced intelligence. A catalogue of research databases. Sixteen Tools for Enhancing Your Google Search Experience. A search engine that finds text in Google Street View images.
Strategic blindspots and business models
Looking at the familiar with “alien eyes” allows you to unlock new business model opportunities while avoiding risks stemming from strategic blindspots. This section also is about the risks we miss.
Using rhizomatic thinking to unlock new ideas. They Were Denied Insurance After a DNA Test. The subscription-based laundry machine. Home listings now include climate risk analysis ( the probability increase for floods in 30 years is staggering…). Russia Sets New Arctic Shipping Record. Comment surmonter le "bruit" qui parasite les prises de décision. Costco plans to stock apartments.
Our future
An Uncertain Future Requires Uncertain Prediction Skills. 2034 – A Day in the m. The glamour of tomorrow. How Von Brauns in 1949 speculated about our future. Wimbledon announced that AI will replace human line judges to call faults and outs starting in 2025. Kiosks for ordering in restaurants do not reduce employment.
It is the time of the year when trend reports start pouring in. Until end of January, I will for each issue add in this section and track those of interest to you, with my personal remarks:
9 Food Trend Predictions for 2025: savory coffee and else
Art World Dos and Don’ts for 2025: no more Abstruse Art Terms
The Trendwatching 2025 report
We keep you updated on those trends and more on Twitter and Bluesky.
Weak signals
Weak signals are indicators of a change, a trend or an emerging risk that might become significant for the future. They allow us to run hypothesis, expand our thinking, and challenge assumptions. How will you interpret those in your industry or field of expertise?
Teen creators jumpstart careers by selling clothes online and getting brand sponsorships. Marketers are looking to unconventional sports to move the needle. Japan convenience store hires remote worker in Sweden for night shift. 53% of employees chose not to attend an end-of-year party in 2023. What is a 'soft life' and why is TikTok glamourising it?
Some of you have asked me to provide my interpretation for signals. Here is an example: Ancient history book sales increased 67 percent from 2013 to 2023. It could be that the world population, getting older, is more interested in stories of the past, or that AI tipping point has pushed some readers away from tech and toward the humanities. I think also some are looking for answers to the current geo-political chaos…
Book a speaking engagement about weak signals and emerging trends.
Down the rabbit hole
This section highlights a subject that led me to many useful threads, or a single site, that opened many doors: “A rabbit hole is not a distraction. A rabbit hole is your brain trying to tell you to pay attention to something you’re curious about. Ignore algorithmic rabbit holes” ( by are.na):
This week, I explored this list of investigations and verification tools.
Unpacking AI
This is a new section. Clients have asked me to dig into the impact of AI for their organization, industry, or their own work. I will add in this sections tools, or angles of interpretation that I find relevant to our community of curious minds:
Users can now talk to ChatGPT by dialing 1-800-CHATGPT or messaging the number via WhatsApp. What just happened. Eliminating the Human. Every White-Collar Role Will Have An AI Copilot. A McDonald's and Starbucks partner is being investigated for using AI to set prices. A pool of curated AI software tools, datasets and capacity building material.
On our radar
I am a member of the advisory board of the Johnston Center for Corporate Governance Innovation at the University of Toronto, and we are launching a study of alternate forms of ownership for companies. I have been looking at shareholding foundations for a while now: Why are Nordic companies so successful? A good introduction to shareholding foundations. Foundation ownership and creditor governance. La coopérative « C’est qui le patron ?! » devient une fondation actionnaire.
Hodgepodge discovery
Articles for curious minds and the polymaths.
Understanding the fuzz about Greenland: ‘I went to Greenland to try to buy it’. Meet the Exclusive Club of Trademarked Scents in the U.S. How to store something for 100 years. How to spot ‘dark empaths’. In Defense of Messiness. The First Virtual Meeting Was in 1916. Why sheep have rectangular pupils. The Unbearable Sameness of Cities.
I like to read new words ( and apparently am not the only one…): This week, I learned about proprioception.
Numbers
$890B: The estimated total of all items returned to retailers this year.
43%: The percentage of US adults who view themselves as overweight.
80%- 80 percent of all travel decisions are made by women
Feeling good
The best science images of 2024. How popular is that name. Impossible to Reach places on Google Earth.
Exercise your brain: 20 paradoxes.
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